Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 21.938581 26.335122 31.168004 36.846270 43.305517 50.394996 58.734072
2025-08-10 15.023119 20.645467 27.464019 36.216539 47.019407 59.779578 75.843620
2025-08-17 11.479801 17.588862 25.589793 36.563229 50.925148 68.774355 92.292595
2025-08-24 8.966902 15.161910 23.846662 36.450822 53.766740 76.186431 106.804189
2025-08-31 6.845766 12.770515 21.645721 35.231772 54.745652 80.955055 117.892968
2025-09-07 5.708668 11.604234 20.950969 35.906769 58.176721 88.972342 133.454933
2025-09-14 4.528388 10.097104 19.469720 35.164347 59.395836 93.880915 144.898693
2025-09-21 3.881566 9.378034 19.111360 36.035494 62.944550 102.129842 161.205811
2025-09-28 2.969836 7.940015 17.311390 34.361673 62.427675 104.402740 169.070550
2025-10-05 2.625207 7.565535 17.314340 35.629643 66.513264 113.554602 187.099986
2025-10-12 2.283826 7.115678 17.103605 36.479989 69.937643 121.815347 204.080496
2025-10-19 1.977471 6.669623 16.828388 37.163994 73.089852 129.747560 220.804424
2025-10-26 1.688734 6.227157 16.567271 37.978321 76.734516 138.955693 240.360681
2025-11-02 1.336289 5.509603 15.628791 37.445122 78.076064 144.668338 254.951249
2025-11-09 1.108893 5.062019 15.192104 37.809082 80.966007 152.938650 273.736963
2025-11-16 0.895093 4.569713 14.559712 37.694261 82.954974 159.782909 290.482474
2025-11-23 0.670359 3.930735 13.445891 36.442642 82.742874 162.928575 301.427224
2025-11-30 0.566069 3.683584 13.264574 37.135729 86.172247 172.286505 322.586338
2025-12-07 0.431859 3.237051 12.464861 36.373409 86.753488 176.784298 335.976198
2025-12-14 0.369055 3.071759 12.407064 37.267895 90.586457 187.015275 359.036850
2025-12-21 0.257458 2.577508 11.283469 35.549120 89.111383 187.872617 366.577231
2025-12-28 0.226562 2.503522 11.420427 36.851187 93.793739 199.791609 392.927945
2026-01-04 0.192359 2.383245 11.386035 37.724251 97.632624 210.315712 417.189150